Market prospect of photovoltaic increment in 2020

Novel coronavirus is expected to gradually recover in 2020, but China’s PV demand will soon pick up if the new coronavirus epidemic is controlled in the first quarter of this year. Several polycrystalline manufacturers have shut down their factories. Several companies are happy and worried. While several new markets have experienced the rising period of photovoltaic, the growth of other markets has slowed down.

(source: WeChat official account, Peng Boxin energy finance, BNEF)

640.webp.jpg

Ukraine has introduced retroactive subsidy reduction policies, and Vietnam’s subsidy policies have not yet been determined, but many other markets will still grow. Some countries have begun to set targets for 2025 and beyond, but most of them are reasonable targets in line with economic development trends. Spain and Portugal are the main non subsidized photovoltaic markets, while the new installed capacity of Portugal and Israel is expected to exceed 1GW for the first time in 2020.

This year’s major incremental markets include:

01 Holland

Last year, after a good photovoltaic harvest, at least 1.7gw of SDE + bidding projects have been connected to the grid. This number was announced by certiq, the certification body, and is likely to increase with the inclusion of more complete data. Bnef expects that the installed capacity will be further improved in 2020, and the reserve projects without grid connection in SDE + bidding projects will reach 11gw. Although there are many reports about the delay of grid connection in the Netherlands, especially in the northern region, these situations should not have a great impact on the installation in 2020. The Dutch government estimates that about 700MW of projects will be affected by absorption conditions, which only accounts for a small part of the scale of the reserve projects. The government is currently considering whether to extend the grid connection deadline of these affected projects by one year.

02 the United States

Bnef initially estimates that the total installed capacity of the United States will reach 9.8gw in 2019, while the installed capacity in 2020 is expected to be 12.6-17.1gw. The decline in investment tax credit (ITC) will continue, and industry groups have failed to persuade the government to extend the preferential policy for five years. For this reason, developers will hoard to lock in tax breaks, so demand for components is likely to rise in the second half of this year.

03 Poland

In 2019, Poland’s new installed capacity was 810mw, which tripled its cumulative installed capacity to 1.3gw. The installed capacity in 2019 exceeds our original expectation, and the main driving force is the unexpected growth of household photovoltaic. The consumer market has developed rapidly because of the support of high electricity price, net measurement policy and new initial installation subsidy. 2020 may be the first year for Poland to become a GW level market. In addition to the consumer market, the 1.2gw bidding project will also be connected to the grid in the next two years. This year, the government also plans a new bidding.

04 Mexico

The new capacity of 2.1gw photovoltaic power plants in Mexico in 2019 is a record high, surpassing 1.5gw in 2018. Two thirds of the new capacity last year came from three bids conducted by Mexico in 2016-2017. At the beginning of 2020, the government announced that it planned to review the past tariff contracts of wind power and photovoltaic, and judge whether the owners received unreasonable subsidies, which damaged the interests of consumers. These policy uncertainties will further affect the development momentum of the Mexican market. Even so, in 2020, we believe that about 3gw photovoltaic projects will still be connected to the grid, and most of them will still come from bidding in previous years.

05 Turkey

Turkey’s new installed capacity in 2019 is between 910-950mw. In 2020, projects smaller than 1MW must be connected to the grid before the end of the year to enjoy the fixed tariff subsidy, so we expect that 1-1.3gw projects will be installed in a rush. Although the fixed price subsidy policy is gone forever, we are optimistic about the development of Turkey market in the next three years. The government plans to develop 1GW projects through bidding every year in the future, and a new bidding will be implemented in April this year. At the same time, the government also hopes that the net measurement policy launched in May 2019 will support the development of the small-scale project market, which is faced with less than 10kW households and less than 5MW industrial and commercial projects.

A set of data

118GW

Current forecast of new installed capacity of photovoltaic in 2019

137GW

Medium scenario forecast of new photovoltaic installed capacity in 2020

Seventeen

The number of countries whose installed capacity is expected to exceed 1GW in 2020